Supercomputer predicts where Man Utd will finish in the Premier League after humbling derby defeat
„All the eyes will be on this game globally,“ Erik ten Hag said ahead of the Manchester derby, the hype tinged with fear of what lay in wait for his side.
All of those eyes saw Ten Hag’s Manchester United melt under the furnace blast of Manchester City’s second-half excellence. Erling Haaland scored twice before teeing up Phil Foden to complete a classy win.
Opta run the season’s remaining fixtures through 10,000 simulations with their vaunted supercomputer. Each team is assigned a ranking based on a mixture of betting odds and a hierarchical Elo-based rating system to predict what is most likely to happen over the coming months.
In the wake of Sunday’s derby defeat, here’s how United are expected to fare in the remainder of the Premier League season.
|
Rank |
Team |
|---|---|
|
1. |
Man City |
|
2. |
Liverpool |
|
3. |
Arsenal |
|
4. |
Tottenham |
|
5. |
Aston Villa |
|
6. |
Newcastle |
|
7. |
Brighton |
|
8. |
Man Utd |
|
9. |
West Ham |
|
10. |
Chelsea |
Based on their current form, Opta’s permutations predict United to finish as low as eighth by the end of the season – the same position they hold after ten games of the campaign.
The 13-time champions of the competition have never slumped lower than seventh in the Premier League era, sinking to those depths during David Moyes‘ single season at the helm as Sir Alex Ferguson’s successor in 2013/14.
Ferguson was in charge of United when they last finished below eighth. The Red Devils hammered reigning champions Arsenal 4-1 on the opening weekend of the 1989/90 campaign but enjoyed little league success thereafter, falling all the way to 13th. In the first Manchester derby of the season, Ferguson’s side were thrashed 5-1 at Maine Road in what he once described as the most embarrassing loss of his career. Ten Hag got away with a three-goal reverse on the weekend.
The one saving grace from United’s season was victory in that year’s FA Cup. Crystal Palace twice took the lead in the Wembley showpiece only for Mark Hughes to force a replay in extra time. Lee Martin’s solitary goal five days later perhaps spared Ferguson the sack.
Ten Hag lifted the EFL Cup in his debut campaign but a finish in lowly eighth, outside the European places, would surely spell the end of his time at Old Trafford even if another domestic cup arrives.
It may be a historically low return but eighth place seems pretty generous given the limp effort United mustered in the second half against City on Sunday. In the end, United were fortunate to only concede three goals as City racked up the second-highest xG figure of any Premier League team this season.
United have led for just 98 minutes in the top flight this term and scarcely looked like adding to that tally after City took a first-half lead. Only Sheffield United, Luton and Bournemouth – three of the current bottom four – have been in front for fewer minutes.
City, United’s tormentors this weekend, are nailed-on favourites to achieve what no other club in the history of England’s top flight ever has; four consecutive league titles.
Pep Guardiola’s side may be lying in the unfamiliar realm of third place but Tottenham Hotspur only hold a two-point advantage at the division’s summit. Ange Postecoglou’s pace-setters have toppled records with 26 points from an available 30 but are still expected to drop to fourth by the time May rolls around.
Arsenal, level on 24 points with City after ten games, are not rated as the defending champions‘ closest challengers. Liverpool take that honour.
Yet, any talk of title aspirations is already deemed fanciful for Manchester United. According to Opta’s supercomputer, United have precisely 0.0% chance of winning this season’s Premier League crown. At this point, they’d surely settle for a spot in the top seven.