Manchester United will learn their three Champions League group stage opponents on Thursday when the draw for the 2023/24 competition is made.

United have alternated between the Champions League and Europa League in recent seasons, failing to qualify for the continent’s elite competition two years in a row since 2017/18 and 2018/19.

Their most recent Champions League campaign ended at the hands of Atletico Madrid in the last 16 in 2022. That being said, on account of reaching a Europa League final within the current five-year cycle of the UEFA ranking system, United retain a high club coefficient.

Given that pot one of the Champions League draw is specifically reserved for the holders, Europa League winners and the national champions of the top-ranked European leagues, United will go into pot two. Of all the teams in that pot, only Real Madrid hold more ranking points.

The draw will see United matched with one team from each of the other three pots. That means all of those in pot two are immediately off-limits: Borussia Dortmund, Atletico Madrid, RB Leipzig, Porto and 2023 finalists Inter, plus the aforementioned Real Madrid.

Arsenal are also in pot two, but clubs from the same country cannot be in the same group anyway – that therefore also covers Manchester City and Newcastle in pot one and pot four respectively.

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Pot one is littered with the continent’s best teams, but Feyenoord are arguably the weakest of the options as they return to the group stage for only the second time in the last 20 years. Benfica might be another that would be preferable given the level of the rest of the clubs.

From pot three, Copenhagen are occasional group stage qualifiers but exited at this round last season without a win. They were also resoundingly beaten by Manchester City then, as well as offering one of the shortest possible away trips.

Belgian champions Royal Antwerp last played in the European Cup in 1957/58 prior to this season, so this is obviously their very first time in the group stage. There is also a special connection as a former United feeder club, where players like Jonny Evans, John O’Shea, Tom Heaton, Luke Chadwick, Ryan Shawcross, Danny Simpson and even Dong Fangzhuo spent time on loan.

Man Utd’s dream group

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Man Utd’s nightmare group

The top dog in pot one is probably a Bayern Munich side strengthened by the summer additions of Harry Kane and Kim Min-jae through the spine of the team. But realistically, Barcelona, Paris Saint-Germain and Napoli are all teams to avoid. Plus, United don’t have a good record against Sevilla.

Pot three is no cakewalk, with various teams presenting different challenges. Among them are last season’s semi-finalists AC Milan, albeit a slightly weaker version after selling Sandro Tonali to Newcastle. But they have equally hit the transfer market hard.

Were United to draw Bayern Munich, it would automatically remove the possibility of facing early Bundesliga leaders Union Berlin. Galatasaray and Celtic also present hostile away atmospheres, But Real Sociedad actually beat Ten Hag’s team at Old Trafford last season in the Europa League.

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On this edition of The Promised Land, part of the 90min podcast network, Scott Saunders and Rob Blanchette discuss Manchester United’s business with deadline day approaching and whether Harry Maguire will stay at the club.

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