Supercomputer predicts Premier League title race after Rodri’s season-ending injury
Manchester City may have secured a 98th-minute equaliser against Arsenal in their recent 2-2 draw, but the reigning Premier League champions lost something far more important.
Substituted just 20 minutes into the fiery affair between last season’s top two, instrumental midfielder and Ballon d’Or contender Rodri now faces a lengthy spell on the sidelines. The Spaniard injured his ACL at the Etihad and could well miss the remainder of the 2024/25 campaign.
A massive blow to Man City’s hopes of claiming a fifth successive Premier League crown in what could be Pep Guardiola’s final season at the helm, the fabled Opta supercomputer has examined the title race in closer detail following the Euro 2024 winner’s injury.
Here’s who Opta think are favourites for the Premier League title.
Opta only offer five sides a chance of winning the Premier League title and even then the stat experts have shown little faith in unlikely candidates Newcastle United and Chelsea.
The Magpies have made a mixed start to the 2024/25 season but have no European football to concern themselves with this term. Still, they’ve been offered just a 0.1% chance of winning the league. With double the odds are the Blues, who are beginning to find their feet under former Man City employee Enzo Maresca.
Liverpool have made an encouraging start under their new boss Arne Slot. The Reds fell away in the 2023/24 title race in April during legendary manager Jurgen Klopp’s final season in charge, with the odds of them claiming a second ever Premier League crown sitting at just 6.2% according to the statisticians.
Most people fancied it to be a two-horse title race at the start of the season, with Arsenal looking to usurp Man City after two tense battles to the finish line. After coming closer than ever to a first Premier League title since 2003/04 last term, many have predicted the Gunners to dethrone the Cityzens this year.
But not Opta. Despite Rodri’s injury, they still offer Man City a resounding 79.2% chance of lifting the title come May, with their rivals Arsenal handed just a 14.4% chance of disrupting City’s dominance. It doesn’t read well for Gooners, but it’s worth remembering that predictions can change swiftly.
Man City’s record without Rodri is still impressive – of course it is, they’re Man City – but they are a much, much better side with the holding midfielder in place. A few dropped points in the coming weeks could force Opta to re-think their predictions.
|
Position |
Club |
Probability of winning Premier League (%) |
|---|---|---|
|
1st |
Manchester City |
79.2% |
|
2nd |
Arsenal |
14.4% |
|
3rd |
Liverpool |
6.2% |
|
4th |
Chelsea |
0.2% |
|
5th |
Newcastle |
0.1% |